Billings Index Improves while Inquiries and Outlook Decelerate, but Still Positive

• June business performance continues to add top numbers to the survey’s 10-year history, showcasing strong, current optimism for the industry.
  • Overall business performance climbs up and records its 12^th consecutive month in expansion territory (i.e., above 50).  
  • Billings index* increased by 3.4 points to 62.4 for June, rebounding from a slight dip in May (59.0) after a record-setting month in April (68.3).
    • The three-month moving average for the billings index increased one point to 63.2, the highest reading in the survey’s history.
    • The South remains the strongest region with a three-month moving average of 69.3 (Midwest: 60.2, Northeast: 63.1, West: 61.6).
  • Inquiries index* moved down 2.4 points to 64.3 but continues to show strong growth. 
    • Inquiries for the past three months rank among the top five historically for the survey (April: 5^th, May: 2^nd, June: 4^th)
  • Sentiment for the future continues to remain robust for the second half of 2021, despite the six-month outlook decreasing 2.5 points to 65.5.
    • Some panelists have indicated that a slowdown might be emerging due to the summer months (i.e., vacation).
• 43% of panelists indicated that business performance was better than expected over the first six months of 2021 compared to only 4% stating that it was worse than expected.
• When asked about price changes over the last 12 months, panelists noticed these top five items/products: Cabinetry (84%), Lumber (84%), Fabrics & Upholstery (71%), Furniture – residential (69%), Flooring (63%).

*Note: Any score above 50 represents expansion (i.e., growth) and below 50 represents contraction (i.e., decline).

Important Economic Indicators

• Employment Updates:
  • As of June 2021, overall employment recovered 15.6M or 75% of the jobs lost from March 2020
  • As of May 2021, Interior Design services recovered 3.3K or 65% of the jobs lost from March 2020
  • As of May 2021, Architectural services recovered 5.6K or 62% of jobs lost from March 2020
• Producer Price Changes (as of June 2021):
  • Lumber (softwood) increased 135.7% over the last 12 months
  • Flooring increased 17.1% over the last 12 months
  • Textiles & Fabrics increased 16.1% over the last 12 months
  • Furniture – residential increased 7.3% over the last 12 months
  • Cabinetry increased 2.0% over the last 12 months